Updated 27 March 2026
Copper Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus: copper reaches $5.00-$5.50/lb by 2027 and $5.50-$7.00/lb by 2030. The energy transition is the primary demand driver.
Analyst Price Targets
| Source | 2026 | 2027 | 2030 | Thesis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goldman Sachs | $4.80/lb | $5.20/lb | $6.50/lb | Structural supply deficit. EV and grid demand outpacing mine output. |
| JP Morgan | $4.60/lb | $5.00/lb | $5.80/lb | Moderate bull case. Chinese property drag offset by energy transition demand. |
| Citi | $4.50/lb | $4.80/lb | $5.50/lb | Base case. Supply responds to higher prices but demand growth is structural. |
| Bank of America | $4.70/lb | $5.30/lb | $7.00/lb | Most bullish. Calls copper 'the new oil'. AI data centre demand underestimated. |
| Wood Mackenzie | $4.40/lb | $4.60/lb | $5.20/lb | Conservative. Expects mine supply to partially catch up, moderating prices. |
Forecasts compiled from published research notes. Actual prices will differ. This is not financial advice.
What Drives the Forecast
Electric vehicles
A battery EV uses 53 kg of copper vs 23 kg in a combustion vehicle. Global EV sales projected to reach 40 million units/year by 2030. That alone adds 1.7 million tonnes of annual copper demand.
AI and data centres
A single AI data centre uses 20,000-40,000 tonnes of copper for power distribution, cooling, and networking. The AI build-out is adding unexpected demand that most forecasts from pre-2024 did not account for.
Grid infrastructure
Renewable energy needs 5x more copper per MW than fossil fuel plants. Grid modernisation in the US, EU, and China requires massive copper investment through 2035.
Mine supply constraints
New copper mines take 10-15 years from discovery to production. Ore grades are declining globally. Chile and Peru face water scarcity and permitting delays. Supply cannot respond quickly to price signals.
Chinese property market
China's property sector traditionally consumed 10-15% of global copper. The ongoing property downturn reduces construction-related copper demand. Partially offset by EV and grid investment.
Recycling growth
32% of copper comes from recycled sources. Higher prices incentivise more recycling, creating a soft ceiling on price spikes. But recycling cannot close the projected supply gap alone.
The Supply-Demand Gap
The International Energy Agency projects copper demand of 36.4 million tonnes by 2030, up from 25.9 million tonnes in 2023. Mine production is projected to reach only 24-26 million tonnes by 2030 even at elevated prices.
This creates a projected supply gap of 8-10 million tonnes by 2030. Recycling can fill 2-3 million tonnes. The remaining gap must come from either new mines (unlikely in time), demand destruction (higher prices reducing usage), or substitution (aluminum in some applications).
This structural deficit is why every major bank has copper prices rising through 2030. The disagreement is on magnitude, not direction.